Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev
The setup
Grant Dawson (13-2 in the UFC) faces Nurullo Aliev (4-1 in the UFC) in a three-round lightweight bout at UFC 333 on October 24, 2026. Dawson has won two straight, most recently over Nurullo Aliev. Aliev is 4-1 over the last five and lost to Grant Dawson last time out. Aliev is the younger fighter by 7 years.
On the feet
Dawson lands 3.37 significant strikes per minute at 51% accuracy and absorbs 2.38. Aliev lands 2.44 at 47% and absorbs 2.60. That gives Dawson the better striking differential, +1.00 per minute to Aliev's -0.16. Aliev is the harder target, avoiding 53% of strikes to Dawson's 44%. Dawson has 2 knockout wins in 15 UFC fights. Neither does much on the feet by our numbers.
On the mat
Dawson brings more of the wrestling, averaging 3.74 takedowns per 15 minutes at 41% accuracy, and Aliev stops 59% of takedown attempts. Aliev gets taken down often, which plays into Dawson's hands. Dawson carries the bigger submission threat: 1.22 attempts per 15 minutes and 5 submission wins in the UFC. Against wrestlers, Dawson is 7-0 in the UFC. Against wrestlers, Aliev is 1-1 in the UFC.
How it ends
The likeliest way for either fighter to win is by decision: 25% for Dawson, 28% for Aliev. The model gives it a 47% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (53% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds.
The pick
The model takes Dawson at 54%, close to a coin flip. Picks in the 50-55% range have been right 57% of the time on 488 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Dawson: recent form, striking output and UFC experience. Aliev's case rests on the age gap.
Model picked Grant Dawson by Decision Model was right
Track record: 64% correct on 1,489 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.