Kody Steele vs Noah Gugnon
The setup
Kody Steele (2-1 in the UFC) faces Noah Gugnon (1-1 in the UFC) in a three-round lightweight bout at UFC 333 on October 24, 2026. Steele has won two straight, most recently over Noah Gugnon. Gugnon is 1-1 over the last two and lost to Kody Steele last time out. Gugnon is the younger fighter by 5 years.
On the feet
Steele lands 3.72 significant strikes per minute at 32% accuracy and absorbs 6.88. Gugnon lands 6.86 at 53% and absorbs 5.90. That gives Gugnon the better striking differential, +0.95 per minute to Steele's -3.15. Gugnon is the harder target, avoiding 56% of strikes to Steele's 48%.
On the mat
Steele brings more of the wrestling, averaging 1.97 takedowns per 15 minutes at 38% accuracy, and Gugnon stops 67% of takedown attempts. Gugnon carries the bigger submission threat: 2.86 attempts per 15 minutes and 1 submission win in the UFC.
How it ends
The likeliest way for either fighter to win is by decision: 17% for Steele, 31% for Gugnon. The model gives it a 52% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (53% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds.
The pick
The model takes Gugnon at 66%, a confident pick. Picks in the 65-70% range have been right 75% of the time on 182 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Gugnon: absorbing fewer strikes, the age gap and win rate. Steele's case rests on UFC experience.
Model picked Noah Gugnon by Decision Model missed
Track record: 64% correct on 1,489 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.