Azamat Murzakanov vs Dominick Reyes
The setup
Azamat Murzakanov (ranked No. 7, 6-2 in the UFC) faces Dominick Reyes (ranked No. 8, 11-5 in the UFC) in a three-round light heavyweight bout at UFC 333 on October 24, 2026. Murzakanov has lost two straight, most recently to Dominick Reyes. Reyes has won two straight, most recently over Azamat Murzakanov. Reyes has 6 inches of height and 6 inches of reach on Murzakanov.
On the feet
Murzakanov lands 4.33 significant strikes per minute at 56% accuracy and absorbs 3.36. Reyes lands 5.00 at 54% and absorbs 3.35. That gives Reyes the better striking differential, +1.64 per minute to Murzakanov's +0.97. Murzakanov is the harder target, avoiding 55% of strikes to Reyes's 50%. Murzakanov has 5 knockout wins in 8 UFC fights. Reyes has 7 knockout wins in 16 UFC fights. By our numbers Murzakanov is a power striker and Reyes a volume striker.
On the mat
Neither leans on wrestling (0.68 and 0.25 takedowns per 15 minutes), so this should mostly be fought standing. Against takedown defenders, Murzakanov is 1-1 in the UFC.
How it ends
The likeliest way for either fighter to win is by knockout: 24% for Murzakanov, 33% for Reyes. The model gives it a 66% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (54% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds.
The pick
The model takes Reyes at 62%, a clear lean. Picks in the 60-65% range have been right 67% of the time on 316 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Reyes: absorbing fewer strikes, UFC experience and recent form. Murzakanov's case rests on win rate.
Model picked Dominick Reyes by KO/TKO Model was right
Track record: 64% correct on 1,489 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.