Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili
The setup
Petr Yan (the champion, 13-4 in the UFC) faces Merab Dvalishvili (ranked No. 1, 14-4 in the UFC) in a five-round bantamweight title co-main event at UFC 333 on October 24, 2026. Yan has won five straight, most recently over Merab Dvalishvili. Dvalishvili has lost two straight, most recently to Petr Yan.
On the feet
Yan lands 5.16 significant strikes per minute at 55% accuracy and absorbs 4.32. Dvalishvili lands 4.48 at 41% and absorbs 2.98. That gives Dvalishvili the better striking differential, +1.50 per minute to Yan's +0.83. Yan is the harder target, avoiding 60% of strikes to Dvalishvili's 53%. Yan has 4 knockout wins in 17 UFC fights. By our numbers Yan is a pressure striker and Dvalishvili a balanced striker.
On the mat
Dvalishvili brings more of the wrestling, averaging 5.74 takedowns per 15 minutes at 31% accuracy, and Yan stops 88% of takedown attempts. That defense is a real obstacle, so Dvalishvili may have to work hard to get it down. Dvalishvili spends 34% of fight time in control, to 14% for Yan. Against wrestlers, Yan is 2-3 in the UFC.
How it ends
The likeliest way for either fighter to win is by decision: 23% for Yan, 38% for Dvalishvili. The model gives it a 39% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (40% of finishes), and 66% come in the first two rounds. More often than not, this one goes to the judges.
The pick
The model takes Dvalishvili at 56%, a slight lean. Picks in the 55-60% range have been right 64% of the time on 414 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Dvalishvili: absorbing fewer strikes, takedown volume and UFC experience. Yan's case rests on the age gap and takedown defense.
Model picked Merab Dvalishvili by Decision Model missed
Track record: 64% correct on 1,489 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.